2017 Top Canadian Soccer Clubs: End-October Update

With my personal apologies for the delay, here is an massive update to the elo-ratings. Sadly, getting all my services transferred to Ontario from BC took far longer than I anticipate, and getting caught up has taken quite a while as well. Rest assured, we’re back on schedule and I will be releasing elo-rating updates every 2-weeks until the final match has been played for 2017. There’s been a lot of movement with various clubs, not to mention the conference quarterfinals in USL, knock-out round in MLS, and the L1O Championship final. Here’s the big picture for the Canadian teams.

MLS

Montreal is out of the running. Vancouver have fought their way through the knock-out round, and Toronto FC enjoys a bye. Looking at the elo-ratings, the numbers reflect their actual positions in the league. We’ll have to keep an eye on how the 2-leg playoff rounds roll out, but we can be fairly certain that these number won’t change too dramatically, unless a major upset occurs.

NASL

FC Edmonton have played out a relatively mediocre fall season. That’s a huge improvement over their disastrous spring season, but not nearly good enough. Unfortunately, last night they fell 2-0 to Puerto Rico. That final loss was enough to drop FC Edmonton to the bottom of the 2nd-division standings. The club had great attendance growth over the past year, so a year’s break would be disastrous for the club.¬†With all the turmoil in US-based leagues, the NASL isn’t even certain it will be around, or if it’ll be a division 2 or division 3 league next year. We’re all holding our breath to see what FC Edmonton will do, and where they will play in 2018.

USL

Sadly, with Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2 folding, this will be the team’s final rating. They remain nearly at the bottom of the 2nd-division Canadian Clubs, and near the bottom of all 2nd-division clubs in Canada/USA cross-border leagues, with a paltry score just over 1118. Thankfully that remains above PDL’s Thunder Bay Chill, who ended their season over 1053, but considering the 4th-division status of PDL versus the 2nd-division status of USL, that’s a fairly slim margin. With Vancouver folding up their operations, it is widely believed the Whitecaps will be partnering with Fresno as their USL affiliate in 2018.

Toronto FC II also ended off the year with a pretty low grade. Although higher than VWFC2, they’re just under 1125. There is a lot of chatter about whether or not TFCII will remain in operation next year. That being said, most of the chatter come from people watching USL, as opposed to those who may actually have some knowledge of the situation. Given the continued presence of TFCIII in League1 Ontario, it would be odd to have TFCII disappear. We’ll have to wait and watch what happens.

Ottawa Fury end their season top of the 2nd division. With a score of 1244, they may have ended above the USL-league average, but still shy of a playoff berth. The question on everyone’s mind is “will Fury play in USL in 2018?” I don’t know the answer, but I’d be willing to bet that they will remain where they are for the 2018 season. As it is starting to look increasingly likely that the Canadian Premier League will be delayed until 2019, much like FC Edmonton, the Fury don’t want a gap year to break their attendance momentum.

League1 Ontario

Everything is over for the year for League1 Ontario. It was a great race to the end, with Oakville Blue Devils and Woodbridge Strikers coming out top of their divisions. A very exciting final played out on October 20th, exemplifying everything that League1 Ontario hopes to be. Leading up to the final, Woodbridge was the favourite in the Elo ratings, having overtaken PDL’s WSA Winnipeg. Alas, it was not to be. Blue Devils out shot Woodbridge to earn their position as the first L1O team to compete in the Canadian Championship. Their victory pulled Woodbridge quite a ways down the ratings, allowing them to be overtaken by both Vaughan and Oakville.

Premier Ligue de Soccer du Quebec

Things are nearly done with PLSQ. AS Blainville won the league some time ago, with some of their recent matches falling to clubs that are a little lower on the totem pole. As a result of those recent losses, AS Blainville’s elo rating has dropped. They’re still top of PLSQ, but now sit behind the top-4 from League1 Ontario. This weekend will mark the PLSQ Cup Final, between AS Blainville and FC Gatineau. If Blainville loses this match to the league’s last-place team on the elo ratings, that would decimate their numbers and send them quite far down the ratings. My money would be on a Blainville victory, especially as both sides have been doing poorly in recent weeks.


Select additional tabs above to switch league summaries.

Elo-ratings as of 25 Oct 2017. For information on how this is calculated, read our <a href="http://www.northernstartingeleven.com/2017-elo-ratings-the-new-starting-points-weights-and-math/">primer</a>
Elo-ratings as of 25 Oct 2017. For information on how this is calculated, read our primer
Closing

Even with League1 Ontario and Canadian USL teams now done for the season, there are a lot of very important matches coming up over the next couple of weeks. Both Vancouver Whitecaps FC and Toronto FC are beginning their playoff run, and both promise to make far runs. Additionally, the PLSQ Cup final is scheduled for this upcoming weekend, and will either propel AS Blainville closer to the top of the D3-ratings, or sink them in much the same way that CS Mont-Royal Outremont fell at the end of last season. Additionally, FC Edmonton have a chance to redeem themselves and move above the USL reserve teams in the ranking as their final match of the season is on Saturday against Miami FC.

If you’d like to keep up to date on Elo-ratings, consider donating on Patreon. Although these update articles come out twice-monthly, all patrons will receive weekly Elo-rating updates, which may provide a better view of a team’s trends throughout the year. Additionally, starting in 2-weeks, all Patreon contributors will have early-access to these bi-weekly articles. There are other Patreon benefits available as well, and we aim to add more as we are able.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Shawn Gray

Shawn Gray

Shawn Gray is an experienced author who has previously published articles on transit, cycling & politics. With a Bachelor of Arts (English) degree, a Bachelor of Education degree, an Event Management graduate certificate, and two years of Business Administration, his education has helped him connect with a variety of people, through numerous industries. In 2014, he was a Team Lead in the Club Section of TD Place, where the Ottawa Fury host matches. Now located in Victoria, British Columbia, Gray enjoys the local PDL matches, and tries to watch his favourite clubs online with his infant son whenever possible.

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