Welcome to our end-of-March Elo-ratings Update. In the past 2-weeks, we’ve seen a round of matches from all 3 MLS sides, and both TFC II & WFC2 play their first USL matches of 2017. With a head-to-head match between Canadian teams, you can bet that there is some jostling in the ratings. We’re still very early in the seasons, so teams are going to jump up and down quite a bit for a few months. If you’d like a walk-through of how we calculate our modified Elo-ratings, please review our mathematically inclined primer article.
In MLS action, Montreal Impact faced New York City FC. They managed to pull out a draw, which benefited them slightly since they were on the road against a higher-rated team. Their 2-point jump in Elo-ratings was dwarfed by the results at BC Place. Vancouver Whitecaps FC, with Brek Shea showing an extreme lack of discipline, managed to not only end up taking a red card, but gave Toronto FC their 1st victory of the season with a 2-0 triumph. In Elo, a road win is huge. Winning by 2 or more goals, makes an even bigger difference. As a result, TFC jumped from a middling 1402 to a respectable 1418. The Whitecaps, in contrast fell from their 2nd-in-Canada position, landing at a basement-dwelling 1372. With 1400 marking the MLS average, it’s a sad reality that only a single Canadian-side stands above-the-line.
In 2nd-division action, neither NASL’s FC Edmonton, nor USL’s Ottawa Fury FC played on opening weekend. As a result, both of the independent 2nd-division sides remain at league-average 1225 points. The two reserve teams are a different story. Both sides followed in their 1st-team’s footsteps this week. Vancouver fell 2-0 on the road against LA Galaxy 2, while Toronto FC II took a road triumph over Pheonix Rising FC. As a result, TFCII sits high at just under 1236, while WFC2 dwells below average around 1213.
The next two weeks will treat us to quite a few matches for Canadian teams in MLS, NASL, and USL. Before our next update on April 12th we will see:
- Toronto FC host Sporting Kansas City
- Chicago Fire host Montreal Impact
- Vancouver Whitecaps host LA Galaxy
- Reno 1868 FC host Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2
- Saint Louis FC host Ottawa Fury FC
- Tampa Bay Rowdies host Toronto FC II
- Jacksonville Armada host FC Edmonton
- Orlando City B host Toronto FC II
- LA Galaxy host Montreal Impact
- Toronto FC II hosts Rochester Rhinos
- Real Salt Lake host Vancouver Whitecaps FC
- Toronto FC host Atlanta United
- Tampa Bay Rowdies host Ottawa Fury FC
- Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2 host Seattle Sounders FC 2
- FC Edmonton host Jacksonville Armada